HD-DVD mp3 players: The iPod Killer?
I was thinking recently that I might want to share my mp3 collection with some of my friends. Not just parts of my collection, but rather the ENTIRE collection. Right now that's only about 26Gb, but then again I've probably only ripped about a quarter of my CD's (not that every single CD is worth ripping, but still there's a significant number of CD's that I still haven't added to my collection).
The problem with trying to share 26Gb of mp3's (or anything, really) is that there's really nothing big enough to hold that except for a hard drive. CD's can only hold 650mb, and dual-layer DVD's max out at 9Gb. So I could put everything onto an external hard drive and just give it to people, but I don't exactly have an external hard drive just lying around that I could lend out, and it's way too easy for someone to break the hard drive. Or even just delete all the data on it accidentally. Hard drives are good for your personal data, but not really good for sharing with others.
Then I realized that both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray offer discs that will fit more than what I currently need. These two discs are competing formats to replace DVD's and offer higher video/audio quality. They can do this because they offer dramatically greater storage capacity than a DVD. Although both will probably initially launch as single-layer discs, thus topping out at 15Gb for HD-DVD and 25Gb for Blu-Ray, each technology will eventually offer storage space at 45Gb for HD-DVD (triple layer) and 50Gb for Blu-Ray (dual layer). This means that once those formats become prevalent, I should be able to burn my entire mp3 collection onto a disc and share it with others. That should be pretty convenient!
Then I realized that if I can fit my entire mp3 collection onto a single disc, then if a "discman" type of device came out that could read that disc and play mp3's off of it, then I could listen to my entire collection pretty easily, and would I really need an iPod at all?
Think about it - currently a 60Gb iPod costs $400. If someone offered a discman that could read HD-DVD discs with mp3's on it, how much would that discman cost? I can you right now that portable CD players are selling for something along the lines of $30, and mp3 CD players are only a little bit more expensive. Imagine if somebody sold a discman that could play HD-DVD discs for around $150. You could theoretically get 45Gb right there for only $150 + the cost of the disc. And you could buy another disc and get another 45Gb for only the cost of the disc, and so on and so on! If that discman could also play videos, you could put your entire DVD collection onto a few HD-DVD discs and watch all your movies whereever you wanted to.
Of course, there are a few problems. The biggest problem is that first everyone needs to get all the hardware. Computer manufacturers need to ship HD-DVD and Blu-Ray burners. Disc manufacturers need to release blank discs at low prices. And someone needs to make this discman. The second problem is battery life. Current discman devices tend to drain a lot of battery power because of the spinning of the disc and the laser. Add a color LCD display for video and that drains things even faster. Making a discman have comparable battery life to an iPod would probably be a big challenge. The final problem would be bulkiness. A discman is a lot bigger than an iPod, so a lot of people might be turned off by one.
Manufacturers could probably conquer all of those problems though. Eventually the hardware will come out. Advances in battery technology are happening pretty quickly, so getting good battery life should eventually be possible. And if something cost half the price of an iPod, I think a lot of people wouldn't mind the bulk so much.
This discman wouldn't replace mp3 players like the Nano, because for people who exercise strenuously or who really value a small sized device, the discman simply can't compete. And there will always be those who prefer the small size and sleek looks of an iPod. But for those who simply want a lot of music in a portable device at a much cheaper price than an iPod, I think the re-invented Discman would be a good choice.
The problem with trying to share 26Gb of mp3's (or anything, really) is that there's really nothing big enough to hold that except for a hard drive. CD's can only hold 650mb, and dual-layer DVD's max out at 9Gb. So I could put everything onto an external hard drive and just give it to people, but I don't exactly have an external hard drive just lying around that I could lend out, and it's way too easy for someone to break the hard drive. Or even just delete all the data on it accidentally. Hard drives are good for your personal data, but not really good for sharing with others.
Then I realized that both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray offer discs that will fit more than what I currently need. These two discs are competing formats to replace DVD's and offer higher video/audio quality. They can do this because they offer dramatically greater storage capacity than a DVD. Although both will probably initially launch as single-layer discs, thus topping out at 15Gb for HD-DVD and 25Gb for Blu-Ray, each technology will eventually offer storage space at 45Gb for HD-DVD (triple layer) and 50Gb for Blu-Ray (dual layer). This means that once those formats become prevalent, I should be able to burn my entire mp3 collection onto a disc and share it with others. That should be pretty convenient!
Then I realized that if I can fit my entire mp3 collection onto a single disc, then if a "discman" type of device came out that could read that disc and play mp3's off of it, then I could listen to my entire collection pretty easily, and would I really need an iPod at all?
Think about it - currently a 60Gb iPod costs $400. If someone offered a discman that could read HD-DVD discs with mp3's on it, how much would that discman cost? I can you right now that portable CD players are selling for something along the lines of $30, and mp3 CD players are only a little bit more expensive. Imagine if somebody sold a discman that could play HD-DVD discs for around $150. You could theoretically get 45Gb right there for only $150 + the cost of the disc. And you could buy another disc and get another 45Gb for only the cost of the disc, and so on and so on! If that discman could also play videos, you could put your entire DVD collection onto a few HD-DVD discs and watch all your movies whereever you wanted to.
Of course, there are a few problems. The biggest problem is that first everyone needs to get all the hardware. Computer manufacturers need to ship HD-DVD and Blu-Ray burners. Disc manufacturers need to release blank discs at low prices. And someone needs to make this discman. The second problem is battery life. Current discman devices tend to drain a lot of battery power because of the spinning of the disc and the laser. Add a color LCD display for video and that drains things even faster. Making a discman have comparable battery life to an iPod would probably be a big challenge. The final problem would be bulkiness. A discman is a lot bigger than an iPod, so a lot of people might be turned off by one.
Manufacturers could probably conquer all of those problems though. Eventually the hardware will come out. Advances in battery technology are happening pretty quickly, so getting good battery life should eventually be possible. And if something cost half the price of an iPod, I think a lot of people wouldn't mind the bulk so much.
This discman wouldn't replace mp3 players like the Nano, because for people who exercise strenuously or who really value a small sized device, the discman simply can't compete. And there will always be those who prefer the small size and sleek looks of an iPod. But for those who simply want a lot of music in a portable device at a much cheaper price than an iPod, I think the re-invented Discman would be a good choice.
posted by Chris at 12:12 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home